COVID-19 Spreading Dynamics with Vaccination – Allocation Strategy, Return to Normalcy and Vaccine Hesitancy

  1. B Shayak
  2. Mohit M Sharma

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Abstract

In this work we use mathematical modeling to analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 spread after a vaccination program is initiated. The model used is a delay differential equation developed earlier by our group. Basis of currently available data, our principal findings are as follows. ( a ) For fastest deceleration of the pandemic, people with high interaction rate such as grocers and airline cabin crew should be given priority in vaccine access. ( b ) Individuals who have been vaccinated may be selectively cleared to return to normal activities without significant risk of a resurgence in cases. ( c ) If an infection as well as a vaccine confers immunity for a duration τ 0 , then the pandemic can be eliminated by vaccinating people at a sufficiently high rate. Unless τ 0 is very small, the cutoff rate required appears feasible to achieve in practice. ( d ) The presence of a substantial minority of vaccine-hesitant population might not amount to a significant threat or even an inconvenience to a vaccine-compliant majority population.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.10.20247049: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.12.10.20247049v1 on medRxiv