COVID-19 Vaccination and Protective Behaviors: Global Evidence of Risk Compensation

This study uses a global survey dataset to examine risk-compensation behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on mask-wearing and social distancing in relation to vaccination. We analyze responses from a period when many countries had high proportions of both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Using the lack of vaccine access to compare behavioral differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated people, our analysis confirms the existence of small but significant risk-compensating effects of COVID-19 vaccination. We find that vaccinated individuals are 0.6% to 0.7% less likely to wear masks in public compared to unvaccinated individuals who are highly willing to get vaccinated. Social distancing behaviors, which carry higher social and economic costs than mask-wearing, show a decrease in likelihood of 1.3% to 4%. This trend remains consistent across comparisons of vaccinated individuals with various groups of unvaccinated people: those willing, very willing, with appointments, or who tried to get the vaccine. JEL Codes: I10; I12; I18.