A computational analysis on Covid-19 transmission raises imuuno-epidemiology concerns

  1. Anthony M. Kyriakopoulos
  2. Shi Zhao

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Abstract

For Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-COV-2) the investigation of the heterogeneity of individual infectiousness becomes important due to the cross reactive immunity of general population. Using a sample of infected population with SARS-COV-2 in close geographical proximity to the initial Severe Advanced Respiratory Syndrome-1 (SARS-1) outbreak, we explored the association between infector’s age and dispersion (or heterogeneity) of individual infectiousness ( k ) in order to investigate the relatedness with the age of an individual’s capability to disperse SARS-COV-2. Interestingly, we find a negative association between k and increase of infector’s age. Significantly this becomes more evident for the age group of 20-60 years comparing with the infectors with younger age. This raises important immuno-epidemiology concerns for effectiveness of public health measures to contain the disease.

One Sentence Summary

Dispersion of Coronavirus Disease-19 in China differed with age.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.11.11.20229641v1 on medRxiv