Medical Capacity Shortages Facilitated the Rapid Dissemination of COVID-19 in Wuhan, New York State, and Italy

  1. Yuehao Xu
  2. Cheng Zhang
  3. Lixian Qian

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Abstract

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, every public health system faced the potential challenge of medical capacity shortages. Infections without timely diagnosis or treatment may facilitate the stealth transmission and spread of the virus. Using infection and medical capacity information reported in Wuhan in China, New York State in the United States, and Italy, we developed a dynamic susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model to estimate the impact of medical capacity shortages during the COVID-19 outbreak at the city, state, and country levels. After accounting for the effects of travel restrictions and control measures, we find that the number of infections in Wuhan could have been 39% lower than the actual number if the medical capacity were doubled in this city. Similarly, we find the less shortages in medical capacity in both New York state and Italy, the faster decline in the daily infection numbers and the fewer deaths. This study provides a method for estimating potential shortages and explains how they may dynamically facilitate disease spreading during future pandemics such as COVID-19.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.05.20226530: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.11.05.20226530v1 on medRxiv