Sero-prevalence Findings from Metropoles in Pakistan: Implications for Assessing COVID-19 Prevalence and Case-fatality within a Dense, Urban Working Population

  1. Wajiha Javed
  2. Jaffer Bin Baqar
  3. Syed Hussain Baqar Abidi
  4. Wajiha Farooq

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Abstract

Population-level serologic testing has demonstrated groundbreaking results in monitoring the prevalence and case-fatality of COVID-19 within a population. In Pakistan, Getz Pharma conducted a sero-prevalence survey on a sample of 24,210 individuals using the IgG/IgM Test Kit (Colloidal gold) with follow-up and sequential testing after every 15-20 days on a sub-sample. This is the first of its kind, large scale census conducted on a dense, urban, working population in Pakistan. The study results reveal that from 24,210 individuals screened, 17.5% tested positive, with 7% IgM positive, 6.0% IgG positive and 4.5% combined IgM and IgG positive. These findings have been extrapolated to the rest of the urban, adult, working population of Pakistan, and as of 6th July, 2020, 4.11 million people in Pakistan have been infected with COVID-19, which is 17.7 times higher than the current number of 231,818 symptom-based PCR cases reported by the government which exclude asymptomatic cases.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.13.20173914: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.08.13.20173914 on medRxiv