Spreading of COVID-19 in Italy as the spreading of a wave packet

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Abstract

We find that the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy can be described as the propagation of a wave packet in a dispersive medium where the effect of Lockdown is simulated by the dispersion relation of the medium. We start expanding a previous statistical analysis based on the official data provided by the Italian civil protection during 100 days, from March 2nd to June 9th. As the total number of people infected with the virus is uncertain, we have considered the trend of ICU patients and the sum of hospitalized patients and the deceased. Both the corresponding curves are well approximated by the same function depending on four free parameters. The model allows to predict the short term behavior of the pandemic and to estimate the benefits due to lockdown measures.

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.03.20167197: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.


    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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