COVID-19 and the paradox effect of age in risk perception

In the rapidly growing research on risk perception in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, little attention is paid so far to a frequently reported finding: older people estimate the risk of infection with the virus to be lower than younger people, while they are exposed to a greater health threat in the event of an infection at the same time. Our study aims to shed more light on this paradox effect of age in risk perception, both theoretically and empirically. Referring to the theory of cognitive dissonance, we argue that, taking the already early communicated age-dependency of the danger of COVID-19 into account, cognitive dissonance may emerge especially among the elderly. The easiest way to reduce this dissonance is to trivialize the dissonant cognitions by the devaluation of the risk of infection itself. This devaluation should increase with increasing dissonance, and thus with increasing age. We test our assumptions using the GESIS Panel Special Survey on the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak in Germany, a rapid-response study on the effect of the pandemic on individuals’ daily life. Age is measured as metric variable, so that non-linear relations can be examined. We use stepwise linear regression models and control the effect of age on the perceived risk of infection according to pre-existing diseases, adapted behavioral measures, perceived threat, and sociodemographic characteristics. The results reveal an exponential, inverted U-shaped effect of age on the perceived risk of contracting the coronavirus, as theoretically expected. This effect is quite robust and indicates exponential trivialization due to exponentially growing dissonance with increasing age.