Implication of backward contact tracing in the presence of overdispersed transmission in COVID-19 outbreaks
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Abstract
Introduction: Contact tracing has the potential to control outbreaks without the need for stringent physical distancing policies, e.g. civil lockdowns. Unlike forward contact tracing, backward contact tracing identifies the source of newly detected cases. This approach is particularly valuable when there is high individual-level variation in the number of secondary transmissions (overdispersion).
Methods: By using a simple branching process model, we explored the potential of combining backward contact tracing with more conventional forward contact tracing for control of COVID-19. We estimated the typical size of clusters that can be reached by backward tracing and simulated the incremental effectiveness of combining backward tracing with conventional forward tracing.
Results: Across ranges of parameter values consistent with dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, backward tracing is expected to identify a primary case generating 3-10 times more infections than average, typically increasing the proportion of subsequent cases averted by a factor of 2-3. The estimated number of cases averted by backward tracing became greater with a higher degree of overdispersion.
Conclusion: Backward contact tracing can be an effective tool for outbreak control, especially in the presence of overdispersion as was observed with SARS-CoV-2.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.01.20166595: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:With these limitations, our results should be considered as a rough estimate suggesting a possible benefit to backward tracing, which should be balanced against finite resources. Because backward tracing is operationally a set of forward tracing measures targeting multiple G1 cases in parallel, additional effectiveness …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.08.01.20166595: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:With these limitations, our results should be considered as a rough estimate suggesting a possible benefit to backward tracing, which should be balanced against finite resources. Because backward tracing is operationally a set of forward tracing measures targeting multiple G1 cases in parallel, additional effectiveness requires a proportional amount of effort, in addition to the ‘overhead’ investigation effort to identify other G1 cases. Cost-effectiveness analysis combined with finer-scale dynamic modelling would help further identify the conditions under which backward tracing is most efficient and feasible.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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