Estimating the total size of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria via different approaches

  1. Mohamed Rezki

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Abstract

In this paper, several techniques and models proposed the spread of coronavirus (Covid-19) and determines approximately the final number of coronavirus infected cases as well as infection point (peak time) in Algeria. To see the goodness of the predicting techniques, a comparative study was done by calculating error indicators such as Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) and the sum of squared estimate of errors (SSE). The main technique used in this study is the logistic growth regression model widely used in epidemiology. The results only relate to the two months from the beginning of the epidemic in Algeria, which should be readjusted by integrating the new data over time, because hazardous parameters like possible relaxations (decrease of vigilance or laxity of society) can affect these results and generally cause a time lag in the curve. Hence, a re-estimation of the curves is always requested.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.29.20164509: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.07.29.20164509 on medRxiv