A novel predictive mathematical model for COVID-19 pandemic with quarantine, contagion dynamics, and environmentally mediated transmission
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Discuss this preprint
Start a discussion What are Sciety discussions?Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
This work presents an ODE model for COVID-19 named SINDROME that incorporates quarantine, contagion dynamics, and environmentally mediated transmission based on the compartments. The SINDROME model introduces a new parameter that allows environmentally mediated transmission, moving quarantined individuals to the infected compartment. We developed a gray box model with the SINDROME, and fit over 169 regions.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.27.20163063: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.27.20163063: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.27.20163063: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains Sentences Resources Th us,the Jacobiano fthesyste m(1)isgiv enby:⎡−(+)−−−⎢ ⎢(+)⎢00=⎢ 0 0 ⎢⎢00⎢00⎢⎣0 00−00−(1−) − −0000 0 −00−−−000 00−−000000 0 000000 000⎤⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥ ⎥⎥⎥⎦(4)Ap plyingtot hecontaminati o n-fre e point( 0, 0,0,0. ,0−))wehavet o,⎡ ⎢⎢⎢=⎢⎢⎢⎢ ⎢⎣−00 −−000−000(1−) −−0000000000 000Theei gen v alues ofthematri xar e:876 54 320 000 −−−=0= 0=−=−−=−( 1∕ 2)√ −(1∕2)−( 1 ∕2) +(1 ∕2)2+2− 2+2+2+2=− (1∕2)−(1∕2) √− (1∕2)−( 1∕2 ) 2+ 2 −2 + 2+ 2 +2 = −− − 00 0 00 − −0 00 00000000 00000 ⎤⎥ ⎥ ⎥⎥ ⎥⎥⎥⎥ ⎦( 5 )N otet h at2√ + 22+2 + 2<2+ 2 2+2+ 2 +2=( + +)2, t hatw ay, 4<−( 1 ∕2 ) −(1∕2 ) −(1∕ 2 )+(1 ∕ 2)(+ + … SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.27.20163063: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains Sentences Resources Th us,the Jacobiano fthesyste m(1)isgiv enby:⎡−(+)−−−⎢ ⎢(+)⎢00=⎢ 0 0 ⎢⎢00⎢00⎢⎣0 00−00−(1−) − −0000 0 −00−−−000 00−−000000 0 000000 000⎤⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥ ⎥⎥⎥⎦(4)Ap plyingtot hecontaminati o n-fre e point( 0, 0,0,0. ,0−))wehavet o,⎡ ⎢⎢⎢=⎢⎢⎢⎢ ⎢⎣−00 −−000−000(1−) −−0000000000 000Theei gen v alues ofthematri xar e:876 54 320 000 −−−=0= 0=−=−−=−( 1∕ 2)√ −(1∕2)−( 1 ∕2) +(1 ∕2)2+2− 2+2+2+2=− (1∕2)−(1∕2) √− (1∕2)−( 1∕2 ) 2+ 2 −2 + 2+ 2 +2 = −− − 00 0 00 − −0 00 00000000 00000 ⎤⎥ ⎥ ⎥⎥ ⎥⎥⎥⎥ ⎦( 5 )N otet h at2√ + 22+2 + 2<2+ 2 2+2+ 2 +2=( + +)2, t hatw ay, 4<−( 1 ∕2 ) −(1∕2 ) −(1∕ 2 )+(1 ∕ 2)(+ + )2=0 , beca u se>0, >0a nd> 0. ⎡ −( + ) − − − ⎢ ⎢suggested: NoneTh etrans missionma tricesand transitio naretheJacobia nmatrices a s sociatedwi ththerateo f appea r anceofnew infections a ndther ateoftheo thercorre spondingc ompartments,r e spect i vely,⎡ 00 =⎢0⎢0 0⎣⎡⎢−(1−)=⎢ −⎣0 0⎤⎥⎥⎦and 0+000 ++⎤⎥⎥⎦Thebasi creproductio nnumber, 0() i sthes pectralrad ius ofthe ma tri x −1,tha tis,0()=( 1− )+( ).32()=0 + 12+ 3on de,3=−( 1−)(++)−( +)+(+)(++)2 =− (1−)−+( +++ + )+ ( +) ( ++ ) 1= + ++ + +0 = 1B y Ro ut h-Hurwit z’scr it e ri on,[ 37 ] ,e achs i gnch a ngei n thef i rstc o lumn o fthe f ollo win gmat r ix r epres e ntsa r ootw i thar e alpo s itiv e part: 0⎡⎢ 1⎢1 2−30⎢ 0⎢ ⎣32⎤3 ⎥⎥ 0⎥ ⎥0⎦ Wealr eady ha ve 0>0an d1>0 , justfindco nd i ti o ns f or 3 >0 a nd Rew ri t in g3to 0,w eha ve, 12− 30> 0 .03=( 1−0) (+) (++)so3>0i f,ando nlyif0<1. 1 − )( + + ) −( + ) + ( + )( + + ) 2 = −(1 − ) − +( + + + + ) +( + )( + + ) 1 = + + + + +suggested: NoneCa lculat ing(7)12= (+++++)(− (1−)−+(++ ++)+(+)(++))>( +++++)(−( + ) −(++)+(+++ +)+(+)(++) ) =(+++ + +)(+)(++) 12−3>(++++ + )(+)(+ +)−(1−0)( +)(++)=(+ ++++−(1−0 ))(+)(++)=(++ + ++0)( + )(++)> 0T husweh avethatif0<1 ,th enthecon ditio nsfortheRouth -Hurwitzcrit eriaarem et, a ndcon sequently, the freec ov id- 19e quilib riumpoint is sta ble. + + + + + ) (−(1 − ) − + ( + + + + ) +( + )( + + )) > ( + + + + + ) (−( + ) − ( + + )+ ( + + + + ) + ( + )( + + )) = ( + + + + + )( + )( + + ) 1 2 − 3 > ( + + + + + )( + )( + + ) −(1 − 0 )( + )( + + ) = ( + + + + + − (1 − 0 )) ( + )( + + ) = ( + + + + + 0suggested: NoneSp ecific ally,anin creaseint hevalueof willincreaseth ebasicpla y n umberby100 ,whichoccu r sTabl e 1Sensitiv ityofparam e tersto thesystem (2)asafun ctionofth eparametersPa r amete r 0sensi ti vityin dexformula11 (1− )(++)(1− )(++) +(+)−((++)−−) (1−)(++)+(+) −(++)(1− )(( 1 −)(++ )+(+))(+)− (++ )(1−) (( 1−) (++ )+(+)) (+)−(+)(( 1− )(+ +)+(+))( + +)− (+) ((1−)(+ +)+(+))(+ +)−(+)((1−) (+ +)+(+)) (++ ) 4. 1 − )( + + ) (1 − )( + + ) + ( + ) − (( + + ) − − ) (1 − )( + + ) + ( + ) − ( + + ) (1 − ) ((1 − )( + + ) + ( + ))( + ) − ( + + ) (1 − ) ((1 − )( + + ) + ( + ))( + ) − ( + ) ((1 − )( + + ) + ( + ))( + + ) − ( + ) ((1 − )( + + ) + ( + ))( + + ) − ( + ) ((1 − )( + + ) + ( + ))( + +suggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
About SciScore
SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore is not a substitute for expert review. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers) in the manuscript, and detects sentences that appear to be missing RRIDs. SciScore also checks to make sure that rigor criteria are addressed by authors. It does this by detecting sentences that discuss criteria such as blinding or power analysis. SciScore does not guarantee that the rigor criteria that it detects are appropriate for the particular study. Instead it assists authors, editors, and reviewers by drawing attention to sections of the manuscript that contain or should contain various rigor criteria and key resources. For details on the results shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.27.20163063: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains Sentences Resources Th us,the Jacobiano fthesyste m(1)isgiv enby:⎡−(+)−−−⎢ ⎢(+)⎢00=⎢ 0 0 ⎢⎢00⎢00⎢⎣0 00−00−(1−) − −0000 0 −00−−−000 00−−000000 0 000000 000⎤⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥ ⎥⎥⎥⎦(4)Ap plyingtot hecontaminati o n-fre e point( 0, 0,0,0. ,0−))wehavet o,⎡ ⎢⎢⎢=⎢⎢⎢⎢ ⎢⎣−00 −−000−000(1−) −−0000000000 000Theei gen v alues ofthematri xar e:876 54 320 000 −−−=0= 0=−=−−=−( 1∕ 2)√ −(1∕2)−( 1 ∕2) +(1 ∕2)2+2− 2+2+2+2=− (1∕2)−(1∕2) √− (1∕2)−( 1∕2 ) 2+ 2 −2 + 2+ 2 +2 = −− − 00 0 00 − −0 00 00000000 00000 ⎤⎥ ⎥ ⎥⎥ ⎥⎥⎥⎥ ⎦( 5 )N otet h at2√ + 22+2 + 2<2+ 2 2+2+ 2 +2=( + +)2, t hatw ay, 4<−( 1 ∕2 ) −(1∕2 ) −(1∕ 2 )+(1 ∕ 2)(+ + … SciScore for 10.1101/2020.07.27.20163063: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Experimental Models: Organisms/Strains Sentences Resources Th us,the Jacobiano fthesyste m(1)isgiv enby:⎡−(+)−−−⎢ ⎢(+)⎢00=⎢ 0 0 ⎢⎢00⎢00⎢⎣0 00−00−(1−) − −0000 0 −00−−−000 00−−000000 0 000000 000⎤⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥ ⎥⎥⎥⎦(4)Ap plyingtot hecontaminati o n-fre e point( 0, 0,0,0. ,0−))wehavet o,⎡ ⎢⎢⎢=⎢⎢⎢⎢ ⎢⎣−00 −−000−000(1−) −−0000000000 000Theei gen v alues ofthematri xar e:876 54 320 000 −−−=0= 0=−=−−=−( 1∕ 2)√ −(1∕2)−( 1 ∕2) +(1 ∕2)2+2− 2+2+2+2=− (1∕2)−(1∕2) √− (1∕2)−( 1∕2 ) 2+ 2 −2 + 2+ 2 +2 = −− − 00 0 00 − −0 00 00000000 00000 ⎤⎥ ⎥ ⎥⎥ ⎥⎥⎥⎥ ⎦( 5 )N otet h at2√ + 22+2 + 2<2+ 2 2+2+ 2 +2=( + +)2, t hatw ay, 4<−( 1 ∕2 ) −(1∕2 ) −(1∕ 2 )+(1 ∕ 2)(+ + )2=0 , beca u se>0, >0a nd> 0. ⎡ −( + ) − − − ⎢ ⎢suggested: NoneTh etrans missionma tricesand transitio naretheJacobia nmatrices a s sociatedwi ththerateo f appea r anceofnew infections a ndther ateoftheo thercorre spondingc ompartments,r e spect i vely,⎡ 00 =⎢0⎢0 0⎣⎡⎢−(1−)=⎢ −⎣0 0⎤⎥⎥⎦and 0+000 ++⎤⎥⎥⎦Thebasi creproductio nnumber, 0() i sthes pectralrad ius ofthe ma tri x −1,tha tis,0()=( 1− )+( ).32()=0 + 12+ 3on de,3=−( 1−)(++)−( +)+(+)(++)2 =− (1−)−+( +++ + )+ ( +) ( ++ ) 1= + ++ + +0 = 1B y Ro ut h-Hurwit z’scr it e ri on,[ 37 ] ,e achs i gnch a ngei n thef i rstc o lumn o fthe f ollo win gmat r ix r epres e ntsa r ootw i thar e alpo s itiv e part: 0⎡⎢ 1⎢1 2−30⎢ 0⎢ ⎣32⎤3 ⎥⎥ 0⎥ ⎥0⎦ Wealr eady ha ve 0>0an d1>0 , justfindco nd i ti o ns f or 3 >0 a nd Rew ri t in g3to 0,w eha ve, 12− 30> 0 .03=( 1−0) (+) (++)so3>0i f,ando nlyif0<1. 1 − )( + + ) −( + ) + ( + )( + + ) 2 = −(1 − ) − +( + + + + ) +( + )( + + ) 1 = + + + + +suggested: NoneCa lculat ing(7)12= (+++++)(− (1−)−+(++ ++)+(+)(++))>( +++++)(−( + ) −(++)+(+++ +)+(+)(++) ) =(+++ + +)(+)(++) 12−3>(++++ + )(+)(+ +)−(1−0)( +)(++)=(+ ++++−(1−0 ))(+)(++)=(++ + ++0)( + )(++)> 0T husweh avethatif0<1 ,th enthecon ditio nsfortheRouth -Hurwitzcrit eriaarem et, a ndcon sequently, the freec ov id- 19e quilib riumpoint is sta ble. + + + + + ) (−(1 − ) − + ( + + + + ) +( + )( + + )) > ( + + + + + ) (−( + ) − ( + + )+ ( + + + + ) + ( + )( + + )) = ( + + + + + )( + )( + + ) 1 2 − 3 > ( + + + + + )( + )( + + ) −(1 − 0 )( + )( + + ) = ( + + + + + − (1 − 0 )) ( + )( + + ) = ( + + + + + 0suggested: NoneSp ecific ally,anin creaseint hevalueof willincreaseth ebasicpla y n umberby100 ,whichoccu r sTabl e 1Sensitiv ityofparam e tersto thesystem (2)asafun ctionofth eparametersPa r amete r 0sensi ti vityin dexformula11 (1− )(++)(1− )(++) +(+)−((++)−−) (1−)(++)+(+) −(++)(1− )(( 1 −)(++ )+(+))(+)− (++ )(1−) (( 1−) (++ )+(+)) (+)−(+)(( 1− )(+ +)+(+))( + +)− (+) ((1−)(+ +)+(+))(+ +)−(+)((1−) (+ +)+(+)) (++ ) 4. 1 − )( + + ) (1 − )( + + ) + ( + ) − (( + + ) − − ) (1 − )( + + ) + ( + ) − ( + + ) (1 − ) ((1 − )( + + ) + ( + ))( + ) − ( + + ) (1 − ) ((1 − )( + + ) + ( + ))( + ) − ( + ) ((1 − )( + + ) + ( + ))( + + ) − ( + ) ((1 − )( + + ) + ( + ))( + + ) − ( + ) ((1 − )( + + ) + ( + ))( + +suggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
About SciScore
SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore is not a substitute for expert review. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers) in the manuscript, and detects sentences that appear to be missing RRIDs. SciScore also checks to make sure that rigor criteria are addressed by authors. It does this by detecting sentences that discuss criteria such as blinding or power analysis. SciScore does not guarantee that the rigor criteria that it detects are appropriate for the particular study. Instead it assists authors, editors, and reviewers by drawing attention to sections of the manuscript that contain or should contain various rigor criteria and key resources. For details on the results shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.
-
