Logistic Approach to COVID - 19 Epidemic Evolution in Brazil

  1. Altair Souza de Assis
  2. Vinicius Werneck de Carvalho

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Abstract

We study in this work the temporal evolution of local and global contaminated population by coronavirus. We access those information analytically and numerically using a logistic model. It is shown, using diferent data from The Brazilian Ministry of Health (MS), The World Health Organization - WHO, and The Niteroi Health Foundation (FMS), the contaminated population ramping-up curves, the population inflection, the population saturation - plateau regime, and also the time related to these population evolution regimes. Based on the simulations, approaches are proposed at this more advanced phase of the pandemic, which might generate effectiveness at the actions of society in general, in a way that those actions could generate effective and efficient results, and this means a more organized war against this pandemic, a better way to induce the economy resumption, and also to create a more intense public awareness on the contamination hubs and surges that may emerge due to the reduction of social isolation.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.22.20135921: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.22.20135921v1 on medRxiv