Rapid characterization of the propagation of COVID-19 in different countries
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Abstract
BACKGROUND
COVID-19 has spread rapidly, and there are still many characteristics of this new disease to be unveiled. We propose a simple method to calculate a “figure of merit” F C to provide an early characterization of the disease status in country C .
METHODS
We use mathematical tools to adjust a Gaussian function to the daily increase of infected patients. Maximum value and full width half maximum of the Gaussian are characteristics of the development of the development of the pandemic in each country. These parameters are supplemented by the testing volume and the mortality rate to produce just one characterizing parameter: F C . In addition, the stability of the Gaussian fits was calculated within an entire week towards the end of the study period. Seventeen different countries were fully considered, while others are considered when discussing particular properties. Data employed is publically available.
FINDINGS
Fitted Gaussian functions render effective information about the development of COVID-19. The number of critical days vary between 11 (South Korea) and 52 (Mexico). F C varies between 1 (Australia) and 899 (Mexico). The epidemic appears stabilized in some countries and unstable in others. Some large countries are experiencing fast development of the propagation of the disease with high F C . A correlation between low (high) values of the mortality rate (and to some extent F C ) and the presence (absence) of BCG vaccination is exposed.
INTERPRETATION
The adjustment of a Gaussian to daily data of COVID-19 in each country reveals the different propagation dynamics, properly characterized by the parameters proposed here. Testing plays a clear role to control the spread of the disease. Mortality rate spans more than one order of magnitude and is somewhat related to permanent massive BCG vaccination. The figure of merit, F C , introduced here spans more than 2 orders of magnitude which makes it a useful indicator to quickly find out the status of the pandemics in each territory. Geography plays a role: low population density and isolated countries can be efficient in controlling the spread of the disease.
HIGHLIGHTS
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An easy-to-evaluate parameter is defined to rapidly establish the status of the evolution of COVID-19 in any given territory. 17 countries in 4 continents are chosen to apply it and compare different evolutions.
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The parameter or figure of merit (F C ) is dynamic: it combines testing, mortality rate, and characteristics of the Gaussian function that fits the new daily contagions.
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F C spans more than two orders of magnitude which makes it a very sensitive indicator to promptly detect second waves or local outbreaks.
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It is found that countries with massive BCG vaccination present low COVID-19 mortality rates and low values for F C .
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.09.20126631: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: We found the following clinical trial numbers in your paper:
Identifier Status Title NCT04327206 Recruiting BCG Vaccination to Protect Healthcare Workers Against COVID-… NCT04328441 Active, not recruiting Reducing Health Care Workers … SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.09.20126631: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: We found the following clinical trial numbers in your paper:
Identifier Status Title NCT04327206 Recruiting BCG Vaccination to Protect Healthcare Workers Against COVID-… NCT04328441 Active, not recruiting Reducing Health Care Workers Absenteeism in Covid-19 Pandemi… Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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