Overview on COVID-19 outbreak indicators across Brazilian federative units

  1. Elvira Maria Guerra-Shinohara
  2. Simone Schneider Weber
  3. Clóvis Paniz
  4. Guilherme Wataru Gomes
  5. Eduardo Jun Shinohara
  6. Tiago Borges Ribeiro Gandra
  7. Indiara Correia Pereira
  8. Karine Gomes Jarcem
  9. Renato Ferreira de Almeida Zanre
  10. Acácia Gimenez Barreto
  11. Alessandro Diogo De Carli

Reviewed by

Read the full article See related articles

Listed in

Log in to save this article

Abstract

Background

The 2019 coronavirus disease pandemic (COVID-19) spread rapidly across Brazil. The country has 27 federative units, with wide regional differences related to climate, lifestyle habits, socioeconomic characteristics and population density. Therefore, we aimed to document and monitor the increase in COVID-19 cases across each federative unit in Brazil, by tracking its progression from inception to 15 May 2020.

Methods

Observational study.

Results

The first confirmed COVID-19 case in the country was notified in São Paulo on 26 February, while the first death occurred on 17 March, in Rio de Janeiro. Since then, there has been a dramatic increase in both confirmed cases and deaths from the disease. São Paulo, in the Southeast region, was initially considered the COVID-19 epidemic epicentre in Brazil. However, 10 states in the North and Northeast regions were ranked among the 14 highest incidences (over 100 cases per 100,000 people) observed on 15 May. Higher incidence rates (>100 cases per 100,000) were associated to higher rates of inadequate water supply and sewerage (OR, 5.83 (95% CI, 1.08–29.37, P=0.041)). North and Northeast states with the highest social vulnerability index scores had higher increases in the incidence rate between 14 April and 15 May. States with medium human development index (HDI) showed higher incidence increases from 14 April to 15 May, being seven of them with ratios in the range from 27.49 to 63.73 times.

Conclusion

Spreading of COVID-19 in Brazil differs across both regions and federative units, being influenced by different socioeconomic contexts.

Article activity feed

  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.06.02.20120220: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board StatementIRB: Conselho Nacional de Saúde (CNS)), no ethical approval is required under Ethics Committee on Research (Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa (CEP) and National Ethics Commission (
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Statistical analyses: Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS version 22.0 (IBM, USA) and GraphPad Prism™ version 5.04 (GraphPad Software, Inc., USA).
    SPSS
    suggested: (SPSS, RRID:SCR_002865)
    GraphPad
    suggested: (GraphPad Prism, RRID:SCR_002798)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    The limitations of this study include those related to incomplete information from government databases, which depend on inputs from thousands of different cities about cases and deaths, and the data of Brazilian last census, carried out in 2010. In addition, there is a restriction of tests for SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian population, which produces underestimated information. Data presented in 15 May 2020 demonstrate that Brazil is still far from reaching the epidemic peak and suggest that actions to support the disadvantaged population by the government should be improved, since a large number of Brazilians live in poverty, in small houses with a great number of people, who share the same rooms, where social isolation is unfeasible. Despite this, in line with WHO recommendations, we believe that social isolation should be encouraged by the government and employers as far as possible, in order to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and further increases in cases and deaths.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.06.02.20120220v1 on medRxiv