Would India Really Touch the Peak of SARS COVID 19 Cases or Deaths in Near Future?

  1. Pramod K. Gupta

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Abstract

Background

The Government, Health System and even an individual citizen of India is alarmed expecting the height of pandemic of SARS-COVID-19 in near future. Many experts worldwide predict it to happen in India between end of May and end of July.

Objectives

The aim of this research was to find an answer that whether India would come across the looming conditions of SARS-COVID-19 in coming days given the prevailing circumstances so far.

Methods

The proposed approach used fundamental concept of Statistics by fixing the standard reference to the number of daily new tests conducted by a country. We thus computed the percentage of daily new cases and daily new deaths, in using such references. The trends were studied using simple line chart. The theory of three sigma was also used to build the upper bound for daily new cases and deaths, specifically for India to see the extreme conditions.

Results

The analysis was done using data from January to till May 18, 2020 for India, Italy, USA and UK. The trend of India was almost fix between ~2% to ~6% till May 18, 2020. On contrary, Italy, USA and UK were touched the Peak on March 29, 2020 (24.38%), April 26, 2020 (23.51%) and April 24, 2020 (24.91%), respectively and declining since then. Similar trends were also noted in daily new deaths, except Italy.

Conclusions

The proposed new concept for fixing universal reference provides a consistent and coherent results. It is thus clear from observed data so far that India is not going to encounter the frightened conditions or peak, like, Italy, USA, and UK for pandemic SARS-COVID-19, given the existing conditions, excluding the current migration.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.21.20109728: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.21.20109728v1 on medRxiv