Quantifying Effects, Forecasting Releases, and Herd Immunity of the Covid-19 Epidemic in S. Paulo – Brazil
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Abstract
A simple and well known epidemiological deterministic model was selected to estimate the main results for the basic dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic breakout in the city of São Paulo – Brazil. The methodology employed the SEIR Model to characterize the epidemics outbreak and future outcomes. A time-dependent incidence weight on the SEIR reproductive basic number accounts for local Mitigation Policies (MP). The insights gained from analysis of these successful interventions were used to quantify shifts and reductions on active cases, casualties, and estimatives on required medical facilities (ITU). This knowledge can be applied to other Brazilian areas. The analysis was applied to forecast the consequences of releasing the MP over specific periods of time. Herd Immunity (HI) analysis allowed estimating how far we are from reaching the HI threshold value, and the price to be paid.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.20.20107912: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Within all those limitations, we can estimate a value for the herd immunity threshold Pc. Under the deterministic SEIR model, Pc = 1 − 1/Reff, i.e., herd immunity threshold depends on a single parameter, the effective basic reproduction number Reff [14]. Where Reff= (1 + r/σo).(1 + r/γo), r is the rate of the initial exponential growth, …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.20.20107912: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Within all those limitations, we can estimate a value for the herd immunity threshold Pc. Under the deterministic SEIR model, Pc = 1 − 1/Reff, i.e., herd immunity threshold depends on a single parameter, the effective basic reproduction number Reff [14]. Where Reff= (1 + r/σo).(1 + r/γo), r is the rate of the initial exponential growth, σo the exposed rate and γo the rate to be removed from the symptomatic infected group [14]. Since the onset of SARS-CoV-2 spread, studies have estimated the value of Reff in the range of 1.1 < Reff < 6.6 [16]. From the previous values determined for r, σo, and γo, we obtained Reff = 3.0 ± 0.3, and Pc = 0.67 ± 0.03. Again, in this study, Reff is restricted to symptomatic hosts only, i.e., 50% of the exposed ones [17]. As a result, the herd immunity threshold will be ξa.Pc = 0.34 ± 0.03, and at least 35% of the population considered here remains to be immunized. As commented before the number of COVID-19 notifications do not include the asymptomatic hosts or individuals with mild symptoms. As a result the number N of susceptible was fold by a factor of three, representing 12.3% of the Sao Paulo population. An extra fraction of 35% or, in the total, over 2 Million of exposed individuals to SARS-CoV-2 are required to cross herd immunity threshold at the city of S. Paulo. Finally, given that the CR of COVID-19 estimated here is 0.23%, and preserving a factor of three fold in the number N of susceptible hosts, 44,000 is estimated as the number of pe...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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