Modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 using Q-SEIR model with age-stratified infection probability
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
We explore the advantage of age-stratifying the population as an improvement on the quarantine-modified SEIR model. We hypothesize that this would project lower cases of infection for the Philippines because of our country's low median age. We introduce the variable U that is multiplied to the incubation rate sigma; when exposed individuals become infected. U is the dot product of the proxy infection probabilities stratified per age group (F) and the population stratified per age group (P) divided by the total population, similar to calculating mathematical expectation. Proxies were taken from two data sets: Hubei, China with a calculated value of U_CHN=0.4447 and Quezon City, Philippines with U_QC=0.5074. When the majority age group, represented by the median age, is far from the age group with the highest number of infections the number of infected individuals decreases and produces a delayed peaking effect. This new method gives a much lower estimate on peak number of infected cases by 65.2% compared with age-stratification alone; and by 75.2% compared with Q-SEIR alone.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.20.20095406: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources A Microsoft Excel worksheet was used in entering the necessary parameters, implementing the numerical solution, and displaying the simulation results. Microsoft Excelsuggested: (Microsoft Excel, RRID:SCR_016137)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.20.20095406: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources A Microsoft Excel worksheet was used in entering the necessary parameters, implementing the numerical solution, and displaying the simulation results. Microsoft Excelsuggested: (Microsoft Excel, RRID:SCR_016137)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-
