Exploring the spread dynamics of COVID-19 in Morocco
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Abstract
Despite some similarities of the dynamic of COVID−19 spread in Morocco and other countries, the infection, recovery and death rates remain very variable. In this paper, we analyze the spread dynamics of COVID−19 in Morocco within a standard susceptible−exposed−infected−recovered−death (SEIRD) model. We have combined SEIRD model with a time−dependent infection rate function, to fit the real data of i) infection counts and ii) death rates due to COVID−19, for the period between March 2nd and Mai 15th 2020. By fitting the infection rate, SEIRD model placed the infection peak on 04/24/2020 and could reproduce it to a large extent on the expense of recovery and death rates. Fitting the SEIRD model to death rates gives rather satisfactory predictions with a maximum of infections on 04/06/2020. Regardless of the low peak position, the peak position, confirmed cases and transmission rate were well reproduced.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.18.20106013: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Nowadays, these models are not new and have many open-source Python and Matlab code implementations available online. Pythonsuggested: (IPython, RRID:SCR_001658)Matlabsuggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.18.20106013: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Nowadays, these models are not new and have many open-source Python and Matlab code implementations available online. Pythonsuggested: (IPython, RRID:SCR_001658)Matlabsuggested: (MATLAB, RRID:SCR_001622)Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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