Estimating and forecasting COVID-19 attack rates and mortality
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Abstract
{We describe a model for estimating past and current infections as well as future deaths due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The model does not use confirmed case numbers and is based instead on recorded numbers of deaths and on the age-specific population distribution. A regularized deconvolution technique is used to infer past infections from recorded deaths. Forecasting is based on a compartmental SIR-type model, combined with a probability distribution for the time from infection to death. The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is modelled empirically, based on recent trends in the death rate. The model can also be used to study counterfactual scenarios based on hypothetical NPI policies.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.11.20097972: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransp…SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.11.20097972: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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