Projected health and economic impact of PCV20 vaccination in UK children: a dynamic transmission model
Discuss this preprint
Start a discussion What are Sciety discussions?Listed in
This article is not in any list yet, why not save it to one of your lists.Abstract
Background
Despite the significant impact of longstanding paediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) use in the United Kingdom (UK), pneumococcal disease burden remains substantial and is primarily driven by nonl1lPCV13 serotypes. Higherl1lvalent vaccines such as the 20l1lvalent PCV (PCV20) may provide additional public health and economic benefits, yet their value in the contemporary UK setting has not been fully assessed using recent data.
Methods
We updated an agel1lstructured dynamic transmission model using postl1lCOVIDl1l19 UK epidemiology (2001–2023) to compare pediatric PCV20 with PCV13 and PCV15. Over a 10-year horizon, we assessed cost-effectiveness and number needed to vaccinate (NNV), capturing invasive and non-invasive disease cases, deaths, costs, quality-adjusted life-years, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. PCV20 was evaluated under 1+1 and 2+1 schedules; PCV13 and PCV15 were assessed under 1+1. Scenario analyses examined key uncertainties.
Results
PCV20 was estimated to avert more cases and deaths than PCV13 or PCV15, driven by broader serotype coverage and indirect effects. Both PCV20 schedules were dominant or cost-saving versus lower-valent comparators, with lower NNVs. PCV20’s higher vaccination costs were offset by reductions in downstream healthcare expenditures.
Conclusion
Paediatric PCV20 implementation in the UK could deliver substantial health gains while improving economic efficiency, supporting timely adoption.
