The Epidemiology of COVID-19 and applying Non Pharmaceutical interventions by using the Susceptible, Infectious Recovered epidemiological Model in Pakistan

  1. Abdul Wahid
  2. Amjad Khan
  3. Qaiser Iqbal
  4. Asad Khan
  5. Nazar Mohammad

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Abstract

Introduction

The COVID-19 is caused by the virus known as sever acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) having the common symptoms such as Flue, fever, dry cough and shortness of breath. The first case was reported in WUHAN city china in December 2019 and it spread to the whole world, WHO declared as world pandemic on 11 th march 2020.

SIR Epidemiological Model

The first case in Pakistan was confirmed on 26 th Feb 2020 as by the 8 th April 2020 the total no of confirmed cases 4187 with 58 deaths and 467 recoveries throughout the country. The upcoming situation of the COVID-19 in Pakistan is forecasted by using SIR epidemiological, which is one of the mathematical derivative models with great accuracy rate prediction used for infectious disease. This model was introduced in the early 20 th century.

Results

Pakistan is will be having a heavy burden of patients 80000 plus infected patients 45000 recoveries 10000 hospitalized 3000 ICU and 800 plus deaths in the next 20 days. A complete lock down, social distancing and imposing curfew to keep every person at home can save Pakistan from a very huge number 1000000 infected patients with huge number of causalities with next 2 months.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.08.20095794: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.05.08.20095794v1 on medRxiv