Estimative of real number of infections by COVID-19 on Brazil and possible scenarios
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Abstract
This paper attempts to provide methods to estimate the real scenario of the novel coronavirus pandemic crisis on Brazil and the states of Sao Paulo, Pernambuco, Espirito Santo, Amazonas and Distrito Federal. By the use of a SEIRD mathematical model with age division, we predict the infection and death curve, stating the peak date for Brazil and these states. We also carry out a prediction for the ICU demand on these states for a visualization of the size of a possible collapse on the local health system. By the end, we establish some future scenarios including the stopping of social isolation and the introduction of vaccines and efficient medicine against the virus.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.03.20052779: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Th…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.03.20052779: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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