Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate the numbers of symptomatic COVID-19 cases in Wuhan prior to the lockdown

  1. Zhanwei Du
  2. Benjamin J. Cowling
  3. Lauren Ancel Meyers

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Abstract

A recent study tested 45 throat swabs taken from adults over age 30 who sought outpatient care at one of two central Wuhan hospitals for influenza-like-illness between December 30, 2019 and January 19, 2020. Although none were confirmed COVID-19 cases, nine retrospectively tested positive for the virus. Using the fact that Wuhan has 393 other hospitals, we extrapolate the total number of undetected cases of symptomatic COVID-19 in adults during this period. we estimate that there were 5,558 [95% CI: 2,761-9,864] adults with symptomatic COVID-19 infections in Wuhan between December 30th and January 19th, 2020.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.26.20075937: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.26.20075937 on medRxiv