REGIONAL DETERMINANTS OF THE EXPANSION OF COVID-19 IN BRAZIL

  1. Waldecy Rodrigues
  2. David Nadler Prata
  3. Wainesten Camargo

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Abstract

Objective

This study investigates the regional differences in the occurrence of COVID-19 in Brazil and its relationship with climatic and demographic factors by use data from February 26 to April 04, 2020. Methods: A Polynomial Regression Model with cubic adjustments of the number of days of contagion, demographic density, city population and climatic factors was designed and used to explain the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil.

Main results

It was evidenced that temperature variation maintains a relationship with the reduction in the number of cases of COVID-19. A variation -3.4% in the number of COVID-19 cases was found for each increase of 1 ° C.

Conclusion

There are evidences that the temperature, has a relative effect in the variation in the number of COVID-19’s researched cases. For the reason, it recommends this relationship deserves to be investigated in other tests with more extended time series, wide and with especially non-linear data adjustments.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.13.20063925: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    The analyses were performed using SAS software version 3.8.
    SAS
    suggested: (SASqPCR, RRID:SCR_003056)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.13.20063925v2 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.13.20063925v1 on medRxiv