Structural change in Brazil and in Minas Gerais between 2008 and 2019: an input-output analysis

This article investigates the drivers of structural change in Brazil and in Minas Gerais between 2008 and 2019. The paper aims to address this question by employing a structural decomposition analysis (SDA), applied to changes in value added for both entities. Data were sourced from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the João Pinheiro Foundation (FJP). The research is novel in the following aspects: first, it unveils the drivers of structural change during a phase of deepening deindustrialization in Brazil; second, it decomposes value added, providing a more meaningful basis for policy analysis than total output; third, technological change is divided into two components – changes in direct requirements and changes in imported input requirements – allowing for an assessment of the substitution of domestic inputs by imported ones as a driver of deindustrialization; and finally, it compares structural changes between a national entity and a regional one, with the latter regarded as a microcosm of the former. JEL CODE: C67; O14; R11