Diminishing Marginal Benefit of Social Distancing in Balancing COVID-19 Medical Demand-to-Supply
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Abstract
Social distancing has been adopted as a non-pharmaceutical intervention to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic from overwhelming the medical resources across the United States (US). The catastrophic socio-economic impacts of this intervention could outweigh its benefits if the timing and duration of implementation are left uncontrolled and ill-strategized. Here we investigate the dynamics of social distancing on age-stratified US population and benchmark its effectiveness in reducing the burden on hospital and ICU beds. Our findings highlight the diminishing marginal benefit of social distancing, characterized by a linear decrease in medical demands against an exponentially increasing social distancing duration. We determine an optimal intermittent social-to-no-distancing ratio of 5:1 corresponding to ∼80% reduction in healthcare demands – beyond this ratio, benefit of social distancing diminishes to a negligible level.
COVID-19 Medical Demand Forecast
https://eece.wustl.edu/chakrabarty-group/covid/
Article activity feed
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.09.20059550: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank…
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.09.20059550: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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