HOW THE COVID-19 PANDEMIA IS SPREADING IN ITALY

  1. Alessandro Salvatoni

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Abstract

In this short paper we describe a simple technique aimed to forecast the course of the spreading of Covid-19 virus infection in Italy. Data released every day by the Italian “Protezione Civile” organization have been processed with reference of the the SIR classical mathematical model by Kermack and McKendrick . The model provides a rough estimate of the time needed to completely block virus spread. The above assumptions will be valid if Covid-19 will not be recognized as capable of establishing a chronic productive infection in significant fraction of the population.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.07.20056846: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.04.07.20056846v1 on medRxiv