ESTIMATION OF COVID-19 CASES IN FRANCE AND IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES: HOMOGENEISATION BASED ON MORTALITY
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Abstract
Every day the authorities of different countries provide an estimate of the number of persons affected by Covid-19 and a count of fatality. We propose to use the fatality reported in each country to provide a better estimate (C t0-estimated ) of the number of cases at a given time t 0 .
With F t0 : number of actual fatalities reported in a country at time t 0 ; F r-est : estimated fatality rate; C (est-d) : estimated fatalities 18 days before t 0 ; C (est-3d) : estimated fatalities 21 days before t 0 .
Based on C t0-estimated calculated using a fatality rate of 2%, we assessed the number of cases April 10 th , 2020 in Belgium, China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom and USA. This number reached 2,872,097 in France and 924,892 persons in Germany. The proposed formulas also make it possible to evaluate the impact of policies to prevent the spread of epidemic on the appearance of new cases.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.07.20055913: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:One of the limitations of our model is that fatality rates can change from one country to another, for example depending on the distribution of the population of different age groups that have different susceptibility to Covid-19. Also, it is possible that death rate changes over time in a given country, for example because of the saturation of hospitals or the correction of mortality figures to include non-counted cases (as done in …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.07.20055913: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:One of the limitations of our model is that fatality rates can change from one country to another, for example depending on the distribution of the population of different age groups that have different susceptibility to Covid-19. Also, it is possible that death rate changes over time in a given country, for example because of the saturation of hospitals or the correction of mortality figures to include non-counted cases (as done in France between April 1 and 4, 2020 to include mortality in nursing homes). We fixed a single value for the time between symptom occurrence and death (18 days). In reality, this time is variable with a 95% credible interval of 16.9 to 19.2 or more (Verity et al. 2020). We however considered that using such interval would make the model more complicated without strongly adding reliability compared to other potential sources of errors. Our analysis is based solely on the number of people who have died with confirmed Covid-19 cases. It is therefore essential that all countries are able to provide very reliable Covid-19 death values. Finally, note that to know the number of actual cases in a country at a given time, we must subtract from the estimates presented here the number of people healed, including those whose disease has not been identified. To conclude, our model questions the small number of people reported to be affected by Covid-19 in most countries compared to the large numbers we estimate. This difference could be explained by a large unde...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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