Analysis of the Worldwide Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Trend; A Modelling Study to Predict Its Spread

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1. 

   ScreenIT

   Mar 1, 2021

   SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.30.20048215: (What is this?)

   Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

   Table 1: Rigor

   NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

   Table 2: Resources

   No key resources detected.

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   Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

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   Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:

   The only limitation of our model is that we did not consider the worldwide temperature differences and seasonality of coronavirus transmission. If 2019-nCoV, similar to influenza, has strong seasonality in its transmission, our epidemic forecast might be biased. Furthermore, we did not account for a vaccine to become publicly available …

   SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.30.20048215: (What is this?)

   Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

   Table 1: Rigor

   NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

   Table 2: Resources

   No key resources detected.

   ---

   Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

   ---

   Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:

   The only limitation of our model is that we did not consider the worldwide temperature differences and seasonality of coronavirus transmission. If 2019-nCoV, similar to influenza, has strong seasonality in its transmission, our epidemic forecast might be biased. Furthermore, we did not account for a vaccine to become publicly available to reduce the impact of the pandemic. But even in the absence of a vaccine, human behaviour and the environment itself can alter the likelihood of spread. Hospitals isolate infected people or they may self-quarantine. A further decrease also often occurs as an outbreak matures as people become immune because of previous exposure, reducing the number of susceptible hosts. It has been recently reported that COVID-19 can stay active in aerosol droplets for 3 hours and viable on solid surfaces for 72 hours so new precautionary measures according to this information can reduce viral spread.11 Further action might include a ban on paper currency notes, a suspension of all cardboard box packed delivery of items and discouragement of human-to-human contact. By using this model world health agencies need to prepare their AID program in advanced for health resources limited countries before the pandemic cause huge damages.

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   Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

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   Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

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   Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

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   Results from rtransparent:

   • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
   • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
   • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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2. 

   Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.30.20048215v1 on medRxiv

   Apr 1, 2020