Transmission dynamics of SARS-COV-2 in China: impact of public health interventions
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
COVID-19 has become a global pandemic. However, the impact of the public health interventions in China needs to be evaluated. We established a SEIRD model to simulate the transmission trend of China. In addition, the reduction of the reproductive number was estimated under the current forty public health interventions policies. Furthermore, the infection curve, daily transmission replication curve, and the trend of cumulative confirmed cases were used to evaluate the effects of the public health interventions. Our results showed that the SEIRD curve model we established had a good fit and the basic reproductive number is 3.38 (95% CI, 3.25–3.48). The SEIRD curve show a small difference between the simulated number of cases and the actual number; the correlation index (H 2 ) is 0.934, and the reproductive number (R) has been reduced from 3.38 to 0.5 under the current forty public health interventions policies of China. The actual growth curve of new cases, the virus infection curve, and the daily transmission replication curve were significantly going down under the current public health interventions. Our results suggest that the current public health interventions of China are effective and should be maintained until COVID-19 is no longer considered a global threat.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.24.20036285: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are some limitations in this study. For example, the source of infection of COVID-19 is not completely clear, and the model assumes that the transmission of COVID-19 only takes place from human to human; the model assumes that the population is uniformly mixed, and that each individual in the same population has the same daily …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.24.20036285: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:There are some limitations in this study. For example, the source of infection of COVID-19 is not completely clear, and the model assumes that the transmission of COVID-19 only takes place from human to human; the model assumes that the population is uniformly mixed, and that each individual in the same population has the same daily contact rate with the patients and the same probability of infection upon one close contact. In addition, the model does not take into account the climate, especially the possible effects of temperature on the transmission of COVID-19. Despite these limitations, our modeling results are in good agreement with the actual numbers, and to a certain extent, the effects of public health interventions are well evaluated. Our study provides a theoretical framework for the formulation and implementation of follow-up public health prevention and control measures. At the same time, it can also provide a reference for the world to deal with the current pandemic.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-
