Influence factors of death risk among COVID-19 patients in Wuhan, China: a hospital-based case-cohort study

  1. Lin Fu
  2. Jun Fei
  3. Hui-Xian Xiang
  4. Ying Xiang
  5. Zhu-Xia Tan
  6. Meng-Die Li
  7. Fang-Fang Liu
  8. Hong-Yan Liu
  9. Ling Zheng
  10. Ying Li
  11. Hui Zhao
  12. De-Xiang Xu

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Abstract

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) triggered by infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been widely pandemic all over the world. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence factors of death risk among 200 COVID-19 patients.

Methods

Two hundred patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were recruited. Demographic data and clinical characteristics were collected from electronic medical records. Biochemical indexes on admission were measured and patient’s prognosis was tracked. The association of demographic data, clinical characteristics and biochemical indexes with death risk was analyzed.

Results

Of 200 COVID-19 patients, 163 (81.5%) had at least one of comorbidities, including diabetes, hypertension, hepatic disease, cardiac disease, chronic pulmonary disease and others. Among all patients, critical cases, defined as oxygenation index lower than 200, accounted for 26.2%. Severe cases, oxygenation index from 200 to 300, were 29.7%. Besides, common cases, oxygenation index higher than 300, accounted for 44.1%. At the end of follow-up, 34 (17%) were died on mean 10.9 day after hospitalization. Stratified analysis revealed that older ages, lower oxygenation index and comorbidities elevated death risk of COVID-19 patients. On admission, 85.5% COVID-19 patients were with at least one of extrapulmonary organ injuries. Univariable logistic regression showed that ALT and TBIL, two indexes of hepatic injury, AST, myoglobin and LDH, AST/ALT ratio, several markers of myocardial injury, creatinine, urea nitrogen and uric acid, three indexes of renal injury, were positively associated with death risk of COVID-19 patients. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that AST/ALT ratio, urea nitrogen, TBIL and LDH on admission were positively correlated with death risk of COVID-19 patients.

Conclusion

Older age, lower oxygenation index and comorbidities on admission elevate death risk of COVID-19 patients. AST/ALT ratio, urea nitrogen, TBIL and LDH on admission may be potential prognostic indicators. Early hospitalization is of great significance to prevent multiple organ damage and improve the survival of COVID-19 patients.

Summary

In this hospital-based case-cohort study, we found that serum urea nitrogen, TBIL, LDH and AST/ALT ratio, several markers of extrapulmonary organ injuries, were positively correlated with death risk of COVID-19 patients. We provide evidence for the first time that multiple organ damage on admission influences the prognosis of COVID-19 patients. Early hospitalization is beneficial for elevating the survival rate of COVID-19 patients especially critical ill patients.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.13.20035329: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board StatementConsent: Each COVID-19 patients gave advanced oral consent.
    IRB: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Anhui Medical University.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Statistical analysis: All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS 21.0 software.
    SPSS
    suggested: (SPSS, RRID:SCR_002865)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.03.13.20035329 on medRxiv