Impact of self-imposed prevention measures and short-term government-imposed social distancing on mitigating and delaying a COVID-19 epidemic: A modelling study

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2020.03.12.20034827: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.


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    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    However, the authors also highlight the small number of randomized-controlled trials and the heterogeneity of the studies as notable limitations which may have led to these results. Given the high uncertainty around the efficacies of hand hygiene and mask-wearing on their own, the promotion of a combination of these measures might become preferable to recommending handwashing or mask-only measures. For self-imposed social distancing, contacts might not be eliminated entirely (e.g. household contacts remain) and therefore realistic values of the efficacy of self-imposed social distancing can be close to but may never reach 100%. Thus, for a fair comparison between measures, realistic efficacy values of a specific measure should be taken into consideration. We contrasted self-imposed measures stimulated by disease awareness with mandated social distancing. Our analyses show that short-term government-imposed social distancing that is implemented early into the epidemic, can delay the epidemic peak but does not affect its magnitude nor the attack rate. For example, a complete lockdown of 3 months imposing a community-wide contact rate reduction that starts after tens to thousands diagnoses in the country can postpone the peak by about 7 months. Such an intervention is highly desirable, when a vaccine is being developed or when healthcare systems require more time to treat cases or increase capacity. If this intervention is implemented in a population which exercises a self-impos...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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