Prediction of the Epidemic of COVID-19 Based on Quarantined Surveillance in China

  1. Rui Li
  2. Wenliang Lu
  3. Xifei Yang
  4. Peihua Feng
  5. Ozarina Muqimova
  6. Xiaoping Chen
  7. Gang Wei

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Abstract

Backgroud and Objective

To predict the epidemic of COVID-19 based on quarantined surveillance from real world in China by modified SEIR model different from the previous simply mathematical model.

Design and Methods

We forecasted the epidemic of COVID-19 based on current clinical and epidemiological data and built a modified SEIR model to consider both the infectivity during incubation period and the influence on the epidemic from strict quarantined measures.

Results

The peak time of the curve for the infected newly diagnosed as COVID-19 should substantially present on Feb. 5, 2020 (in non-Hubei areas) and Feb. 19, 2020 (in Hubei). It is estimated that the peak of the curve of the cumulative confirmed cases will appear in non-Hubei areas on Mar. 3, 2020 and in Hubei province on Mar. 10, 2020, and the total number of the patients diagnosed as COVID-19 is 18,000 in non-Hubei areas and 78,000-96,000 in Hubei. The Chinese COVID-19 epidemic can be completetly controlled in May, 2020.

Conclusions

COVID-19 is only a local outbreak in Hubei Province, China. It can be probably avoided the pandemic of global SARS-CoV-2 cases rise with the great efforts by Chinese government and its people.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.27.20027169: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    From the above, it could be seen that our study was principally based on the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 in recent 45 days and modified SEIR model, which was quite different from other absolutely theoretical models, mainly as follows:1) our study was based on the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 according to epidemic situation, considering that the incubation period was still infectious;2) evaluating R0 was on the basis of the big data of epidemic situation, R0 was 4.9-9.9 (the median R0 7.5) in Hubei, but 2.5-4.8 (the median R0 3.7) in non-Hubei areas;3) the occasion and intensity of the blocked and isolated measures by Chinese government were unprecedented and efficient in scale, which prevented SARS-CoV-2 outbreaking in non-Hubei area;4) in scale, the COVID-19 epidemic was currently a local public health emergency in Hubei Province in China;5) our insufficiency: □whether there was a significant difference in infectivity between the latent and the infected and it required to be further confirmed in clinical practice; □the blocked and isolated measures had been implemented differently in different areas due to different economic, cultural and management levels; □the maintaining time of the blocked and isolated measures is still in suspense; □whether the epidemic will relapse owing to the surveillance paralysis and the complicated population migration caused by returning to work in a large number of enterprises; □for SEIR model by itself, th...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.02.27.20027169v1 on medRxiv