Analysis of meteorological conditions and prediction of epidemic trend of 2019-nCoV infection in 2020
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Abstract
Objective
To investigate the meteorological condition for incidence and spread of 2019-nCoV infection, to predict the epidemiology of the infectious disease, and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control measures against the new disease.
Methods
The meteorological factors during the outbreak period of the novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan in 2019 were collected and analyzed, and were confirmed with those of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in China in 2003. Data of patients infected with 2019-nCoV and SARS coronavirus were collected from WHO website and other public sources.
Results
This study found that the suitable temperature range for 2019-nCoV survival is (13-24 °C), among which 19°C lasting about 60 days is conducive to the spread between the vector and humans; the humidity range is 50%-80%, of which about 75% humidity is conducive to the survival of the coronavirus; the suitable precipitation range is below 30 mm/month. Cold air and continuous low temperature over one week are helpful for the elimination of the virus. The prediction results show that with the approach of spring, the temperature in north China gradually rises, and the coronavirus spreads to middle and high latitudes along the temperature line of 13-19 °C. The population of new coronavirus infections is concentrated in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other urban agglomerations. Starting from May 2020, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, the Central China Zhengzhou-Wuhan urban agglomeration, the eastern Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai urban agglomeration, and the southern Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration are all under a high temperature above 24 °C, which is not conducive to the survival and reproduction of coronaviruses, so the epidemic is expected to end.
Conclusions
A wide range of continuous warm and dry weather is conducive to the survival of 2019-nCoV. The coming of spring, in addition to the original Wuhan-Zhengzhou urban agglomeration in central China, means that the prevention and control measures in big cities located in mid-latitude should be strengthened, especially the monitoring of transportation hubs. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is a concentrated area of population in south China, with a faster temperature rise than those in mid-high latitudes, and thus the prevention in this area should be prioritized. From a global perspective, cities with a mean temperature below 24 °C are all high-risk cities for 2019-nCoV transmission before June.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.13.20022715: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Limitation of this study: 1. Due to limited data available, we didn’t include other meteorological factors such as air pressure, atmospheric particles, ultraviolet, and social factors such as population movement for analysis. …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.13.20022715: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Limitation of this study: 1. Due to limited data available, we didn’t include other meteorological factors such as air pressure, atmospheric particles, ultraviolet, and social factors such as population movement for analysis. Inclusion of such factors will provide more accurate and reliable results. 2. As the public data on the new coronary disease and SARS were limited, the numbers of SARS cases in Guangzhou and part in Beijing (before April 20, 2013) were cumulative data of month instead of daily data. In conclusion, through the analysis of the meteorological conditions for onset of 2019-nCoV and SARS coronavirus, we found that: (1) A wide range of continuous warm and dry weather is conducive to the survival of the virus with a temperature range of 13-24 °C, a humidity range of 50% -80%, a precipitation of 30 mm / month or less. Cold air for more than a week has a significant inhibitory effect on coronavirus. (2) In the coming Feb and April, coronavirus advancing to mid-high latitudes along with an isotherm line of 13-19 °C. The regions with a mean temperature of 13-19°C include the most densely populated areas in the Mainland China, like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai area and other middle-high latitude urban agglomerations. It is therefore necessary to intensify the disease prevention and control in these areas, especially in transportation hub cities. In south China, the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration should be the focus of disease p...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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