Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Remain Essential to Reducing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Burden Even in a Well-Vaccinated Society: A Modeling Study

  1. Tomás M León
  2. Jason Vargo
  3. Erica S Pan
  4. Seema Jain
  5. Priya B Shete

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Abstract

Vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, but their effectiveness depends on coverage and adherence levels. We used scenario modeling to evaluate their effects on cases and deaths averted and herd immunity. NPIs and vaccines worked synergistically in different parts of the pandemic to reduce disease burden.

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  3. Version published to 10.1093/ofid/ofab415
  4. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.29.21254568: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Like all scenario models, ours has limitations, the first being inherent uncertainty about parameters and scenario conditions. Our assumptions about the effects of vaccination on transmission are conservative, due to relatively limited evidence of effectiveness against asymptomatic transmission. This may also affect the timeframe for reaching herd immunity. Additionally, our analyses do not currently account for increasing prevalence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants that are more infectious or immune evasive. Each of these challenges support maintaining a conservative approach to NPIs. Our analyses provide evidence to support continued disease control and prevention efforts, including masking, social/physical distancing, ventilation, and hand hygiene (i.e., NPIs), during initial COVID-19 vaccine implementation. First, the effect of vaccination in low NPI scenarios is attenuated by ongoing transmission while herd immunity is still distant. Second, despite potential accelerated scale up of vaccinations, levels of herd immunity required to reduce the need for NPIs would not be reached until summer 2021 or later, absent a major increase in vaccine supply and distribution. Public health stakeholders should continue implementing both vaccines and physical distancing measures (NPIs) simultaneously to reduce transmission, hospitalizations, and deaths as we aspire for pandemic control and until herd immunity, driven by vaccination, reaches a sufficient level to ensure protection for the m...

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  5. Version published to 10.1101/2021.03.29.21254568v1 on medRxiv