Sustainable targeted interventions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic: A big data-driven modeling study in Hong Kong
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Abstract
Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for contact suppression have been widely used worldwide, which impose harmful burdens on the well-being of populations and the local economy. The evaluation of alternative NPIs is needed to confront the pandemic with less disruption. By harnessing human mobility data, we develop an agent-based model that can evaluate the efficacies of NPIs with individualized mobility simulations. Based on the model, we propose data-driven targeted interventions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong without city-wide NPIs. We develop a data-driven agent-based model for 7.55×106 Hong Kong residents to evaluate the efficacies of various NPIs in the first 80 days of the initial outbreak. The entire territory of Hong Kong has been split into 4905 500×500m2 grids. The model can simulate detailed agent interactions based on the demographics data, public facilities and functional buildings, transportation systems, and travel patterns. The general daily human mobility patterns are adopted from Google’s Community Mobility Report. The scenario without any NPIs is set as the baseline. By simulating the epidemic progression and human movement at the individual level, we propose model-driven targeted interventions which focus on the surgical testing and quarantine of only a small portion of regions instead of enforcing NPIs in the whole city. The effectiveness of common NPIs and the proposed targeted interventions are evaluated by 100 extensive simulations. The proposed model can inform targeted interventions, which are able to effectively contain the COVID-19 outbreak with much lower disruption of the city. It represents a promising approach to sustainable NPIs to help us revive the economy of the city and the world.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.29.21250786: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The limitation of this study is the missing of real-time individualized mobility movement data such as the mobile phone data. Obtaining individualized mobile phone data is extremely difficult, if not impossible. However, the model can be applied to other cities where such individualized mobility data is available.
Results from TrialIdentif…
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.29.21250786: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The limitation of this study is the missing of real-time individualized mobility movement data such as the mobile phone data. Obtaining individualized mobile phone data is extremely difficult, if not impossible. However, the model can be applied to other cities where such individualized mobility data is available.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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