PySIRTEM: An Efficient Modular Simulation Platform for The Analysis of Pandemic Scenarios

Conventional population-based ODE models struggle against increased level of resolution since incorporating many states exponentially increases computational costs, and demands robust calibration for numerous hyperparameters. PySIRTEM is a spatiotemporal SEIR-based epidemic simulation platform that provides high resolution analysis of viral disease progression and mitigation. Based on the authors-developed Matlab© simulator SIRTEM , PySIRTEM ‘s modular design reflects key health processes, including infection, testing, immunity, and hospitalization, enabling flexible manipulation of transition rates. Unlike SIRTEM , PySIRTEM uses a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) particle filter to dynamically learn epidemiological parameters using historical COVID-19 data from several U.S. states. The improved accuracy (by orders of magnitude) make PySIRTEM ideal for informed decision-making by detecting outbreaks and fluctuations. We further demonstrate PySIRTEM ‘s usability performing a factorial analysis to assess the impact of different hyperparameter configurations on the predicted epidemic dynamics. Finally, we analyze containment scenarios with varying trends, showcasing PySIRTEM ‘s adaptability and effectiveness.