The end of social confinement and COVID-19 re-emergence risk
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.14.20064766: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:On the contrary, the model shows how the maintenance of the confinement for 15 more days (April 29), involves the drastic limitation of the current epidemic peak to around 100, 000 active cases, as well as the generation of a …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.14.20064766: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:On the contrary, the model shows how the maintenance of the confinement for 15 more days (April 29), involves the drastic limitation of the current epidemic peak to around 100, 000 active cases, as well as the generation of a second wave of cases peaking around mid-September. It should be noted that this second peak is delayed until 2021 when total confinement is extended to 60 days (May 14). A reduction in the number of deaths between the 30-day and 60-day scenarios to approximately half can be also seen in the central panel. In figure 2, the most notable results are the growth in the final number of infected (from 400, 000 to 650, 000), unlike in the previous case. Of relevance also, is the appearance of a more prominent second peak in terms of active cases, that would occur prior to the scenario detailed above in figure 1. Under this assumption and even with a 60-day confinement, the second peak would occur in late 2020. Similarly, an increase in the number of deaths produced by Covid-19 is to be expected also. Figure 3 shows important differences with regard to the previous scenarios where the de-confinement occurs suddenly. And most notably, even when compared to those that would be obtained with much longer total confinements. For example, at this gradual rate of de-confinement, started on day 30 from the start of confinement (March 13), the magnitude of the epidemic peak attained is comparable to that of a sudden de-confinement of around 40% of the confined population....
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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