Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout
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Abstract
There is a consensus that mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 will ultimately end the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is not clear when and which control measures can be relaxed during the rollout of vaccination programmes. We investigate relaxation scenarios using an age-structured transmission model that has been fitted to age-specific seroprevalence data, hospital admissions, and projected vaccination coverage for Portugal. Our analyses suggest that the pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities could lead to new pandemic waves, and that substantial control efforts prove necessary throughout 2021. Using knowledge on control measures introduced in 2020, we anticipate that relaxing measures completely or to the extent as in autumn 2020 could launch a wave starting in April 2021. Additional waves could be prevented altogether if measures are relaxed as in summer 2020 or in a step-wise manner throughout 2021. We discuss at which point the control of COVID-19 would be achieved for each scenario.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.24.21254188: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Antibodies Sentences Resources SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibodies were measured in serum samples by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. IgGsuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Combining these with some additional limitations of indoor social activities and online classes for secondary school students could help to replicate the average contact rate of summer 2020, compensating for opening of elementary schools. As any model, our model has limitations. An important one is that protection …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.24.21254188: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Antibodies Sentences Resources SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibodies were measured in serum samples by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. IgGsuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Combining these with some additional limitations of indoor social activities and online classes for secondary school students could help to replicate the average contact rate of summer 2020, compensating for opening of elementary schools. As any model, our model has limitations. An important one is that protection against (re-)infection after natural infection and vaccination is permanent over the time-scale of our analyses (almost two years). This frequently used assumption [26–28, 44, 47] leads to that in our model, theoretically, SARS-CoV-2 can be eliminated from the population. However, as we discussed recently [56] and as addressed in several conceptual modeling studies [57–59], accumulating evidence suggests that after the initial pandemic phase SARS-CoV-2 is likely to be transitioning to endemicity and continued circulation. Specifically, recent data from individual-level studies point to that detectable levels of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 providing immunity against reinfection can wane on the time scale of a few months to few years following exposure, as shown by our group [60] and corroborated with findings of other studies [61–63]. However, the immunity to SARS-CoV-2 depending on a combination of B- and T-cell-mediated responses elicited during primary SARS-CoV-2 infection could reduce susceptibility to and infectiousness of the following infections and offer protection against severe disease, i.e. COVID-19 [64]. The estimation of the model parameters and evaluation ...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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