Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.06.20055863: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:4.4 Limitations: This study proposes a new strategy to characterize the timeline of COVID-19. While this allows us to estimate the peaks of the outbreak in space and time, we need to be aware that this study uses a simple model to characterize a complex infectious disease about which we still know very little to this day. Importantly, we …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.04.06.20055863: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:4.4 Limitations: This study proposes a new strategy to characterize the timeline of COVID-19. While this allows us to estimate the peaks of the outbreak in space and time, we need to be aware that this study uses a simple model to characterize a complex infectious disease about which we still know very little to this day. Importantly, we have to be cautious not to overstate the results. Specifically, our study has several limitations: First, our mathematical model does not account for asymptomatic cases. Little is known about the fraction of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic individuals but early studies suggest that up to 25% of individuals have gone from susceptible to recovered without having ever been reported as infectious. Second, the classical SEIR model does not distinguish between asymptomatic infectious in the first days of the disease and symptomatic infectious in the later days. Knowing more about this group and modeling appropriately is critical to accurately estimate the impact of community spreading and mitigation strategies to reduce it. Third, while the initial infectious group I0 can be reasonably well approximated from the reported active cases and the initial recovered group R0 is likely zero, the initial exposed group E0 is really unknown and can hugely effect the outbreak dynamics as the sensitivity study in Figure 3 and the data for China and the United States in Figures 9 and 10 show. We decided to include this effect through the initial latent popula...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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