Mortality Baselines and Excess Mortality Events in Belgian and Greek Cities Using Singular Spectrum Analysis
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Background
Excess mortality estimates depend on an expected baseline, an unobservable quantity typically derived from models with prescribed functional forms and short reference periods that exclude exceptional events. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) offers a nonparametric alternative but requires subjective component selection and is sensitive to outliers. We combined SSA with automated component selection and outlier interpolation to estimate long-term baselines and compile a catalog of excess mortality events (EMEs).
Methods
We analyzed weekly all-cause mortality (2015–2024) for six metropolitan areas with contrasting climatic, demographic, and epidemiological contexts: Brussels, Antwerp, and Liège (Belgium), and Athens, Thessaloniki, and Larisa (Greece). SSA was applied to standardized log-mortality rates; components were selected using Monte Carlo SSA, and COVID-19 periods were interpolated iteratively. EMEs were defined as weeks exceeding a quasi-Poisson two-z-score threshold, then screened for coincidence with heat waves, cold waves, COVID-19 periods, and influenza epidemics.
Results
Baselines were consistent within countries: annual cycles in Belgium, with an additional significant semiannual cycle in Greece reflecting summer mortality. We cataloged 170 EMEs spanning 456 weeks and 14,210 excess deaths. Pandemic weeks accounted for 77% of excess mortality, and 96 weeks coincided with temperature extremes; 56 EMEs, representing 3.7% of excess mortality, remained unmatched.
Conclusions
SSA yields reproducible, low-assumption baselines that capture country-specific seasonality. Because flexible baselines can absorb recurrent seasonal mortality, component selection is a substantive choice that should be reported explicitly, together with its sensitivity.
