GWAS of flag leaf primary metabolites uncovers metabolic QTL hubs linked to grain yield stability under drought in field-grown indica rice

Reproductive stage drought disrupts flag leaf metabolism in rice ( Oryza sativa ), limiting photoassimilate translocation to developing grains and reducing grain yield (GY). How natural variation in this response relates to GY remains poorly understood. This study combines untargeted metabolomics of flag leaves from 271 indica rice accessions grown under well-watered (WW) and reproductive-stage water-limited (WL) field conditions with genome-wide association studies of 89 annotated polar metabolites. A total of 180 metabolite quantitative trait loci (mQTLs) were identified: 93 detected only under WL, 68 only under WW, and 19 under both conditions, indicating a predominant stress-dependent genetic control; mapping of GY itself detected only four marginal QTLs, none overlapping the mQTLs. Four high-density regions (HDRs) of mQTLs were identified: HDR1-1, detected only under WW conditions and associated mainly with raffinose family oligosaccharides; HDR1-2, HDR4, and HDR11, detected only under WL conditions and associated mainly with tricarboxylic acid cycle intermediates and amino acids. After correcting for genetic relatedness, accessions carrying the favourable haplotype at both HDR1-2 and HDR4 yielded 21.5% more under WL conditions than accessions carrying the unfavourable haplotype at both loci and lost 11.4 percentage points less GY to stress. Accessions carrying the favourable haplotype at only one locus showed a comparable reduction in yield loss. Haplotype-guided variant detection against the 3,000 Rice Genomes Project panel identified major-impact variants in candidate genes, including a polyphenol oxidase at HDR1-2 and tandem cytochrome P450s at HDR4. These hubs are promising, metabolically defined targets for breeding drought-resilient rice.