Uncertainty-Guided Decision-Making in Bumble Bees

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Abstract

The evolutionary origins of cognitive monitoring remain contested. Metacognition, the capacity to monitor one’s own cognitive states, has long been linked to complex vertebrate brains, yet whether a miniature brain can evaluate the reliability of its internal representations is unknown. Here we demonstrate that bumble bees engage in uncertainty-guided decision-making. Bees dynamically adjusted opt-out choices according to perceptual difficulty, settling for a smaller guaranteed reward to avoid errors, and actively paid a reward cost to seek information under uncertainty. Without any retraining, bees transferred this ‘opt-out-under-uncertainty’ rule to novel tactile and working-memory tasks under an all-probe design. This strategy was stable across individuals and accurately captured by a confidence-based decision model. Our findings suggest that a brain of approximately one million neurons can support an abstract domain-general uncertainty-monitoring policy, indicating that the neural substrates for uncertainty-guided decision-making may be far more ancient and widely distributed than previously assumed.

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