Evolutionary replay of duplicate-gene retention is structured by lineage and event

Whole-genome duplications repeatedly expose ancestral gene lineages to the same broad evolutionary outcome-retention or loss of duplicated copies-but it remains unclear whether this history replays similarly across evolutionary scales. We placed duplicate retention in shared hierarchical orthologous-group coordinates and compared percentile ranks defined within each event-wide mapped universe. Three independent angiosperm whole-genome duplications showed reproducible replay (global rank effect T-replay = 0.210, bootstrap 95% confidence interval 0.172-0.248; permutation P = 1/100,001). A plant reference-panel score specified before target outcomes were examined predicted retention after the Apple/Pear duplication (ρ = 0.169, n = 373). Deep transfer was heterogeneous: the teleost-genome-duplication estimate was positive but unresolved (ρ = 0.107, n = 151, 95% confidence interval −0.050 to 0.260), whereas transfer to the ancient budding-yeast whole-genome duplication (yeast WGD) was supported (ρ = 0.280, n = 186). Independently reconstructed animal outcomes also replayed between teleost and Stylommatophora duplications (r = 0.226, n = 146, P = 0.00326), although the effect remained below a prespecified strong-effect threshold. A strict plant-animal comparison was limited to 25 deeply one-to-one lineages and was unresolved (r = 0.033, 95% confidence interval -0.303 to 0.340). Thus, ancestral gene-lineage identity contributes reproducibly to duplicate retention after independent whole-genome duplications, but replay is structured by evolutionary lineage and modified by event-specific history rather than governed by one universal gene-fate ranking.