Sporadic long-range contacts in out-of-venue settings dominate mass gathering events in Germany

Mass gathering events (MGEs) play a critical role for infectious disease dynamics on a population level as they provide opportunities for superspreading; however, underlying mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. We analyzed nationwide GPS-based, individual-level location data from mobile phone users in Germany between April and August 2024 with 16 m spatial precision. Potentially infectious contacts were inferred from close co-location and linked to contact settings using OpenStreetMap data. Various MGEs, including EURO 2024 matches, major concerts, festivals, and fairs were compared using a common contact metric. Non-football events generated substantially more contacts than football events. While overall national contact numbers remained stable, MGEs produced so-called “small-world” contacts which gather people from distant locations into close proximity and could strongly enhance infectious disease dynamics. Crucially, most high-risk contacts occurred within two hours before the event, not at the event itself, and concentrated in public transport, leisure, and event-adjacent areas. Our work provides the first systematic and comparative evaluation of contact exposure across various types of MGEs and contact settings. Event-type-specific dynamics, particularly indirect and mobility-driven contacts, critically shape infection risk. These insights can inform accurate transmission modeling, targeted intervention and event-management strategies.