Impact of Seasonal Variability on Cerebrovascular and Cardiovascular Health: Evidence from a District Hospital in Ghana

The burden of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is rising rapidly across sub-Saharan Africa. Increasing scientific reports indicate that meteorological seasonality may be associated with vascular hospitalization, yet evidence from tropical West Africa remains scarce. Understanding how climate and seasonal factors influence vascular health and hospital admissions is essential for informing targeted, context-specific health system responses.

We conducted a hospital-based ecological time-series analysis using 45 months of electronic health records (February 2022 to August 2025) from Ga North District Hospital, Accra, Ghana (N = 8,308 admissions). Vascular burden was classified from primary discharge diagnosis into three mutually exclusive categories: cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and non-vascular. Monthly climate data obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) were linked by admission month and used to characterize the three meteorological seasons. Logistic regression examined associations between standardized climate variables and vascular admission. Multivariable models incorporated non-redundant climate variables and were adjusted for age and sex.

There were 427 cardiovascular admissions (5.1%) and 672 cerebrovascular admissions (8.1%) over the study period. Cardiovascular cases nearly tripled as a proportion of all admissions between 2022 (2.4%) and 2024 (7.1%). GMet data confirmed three climatically distinct seasons namely, Dry and Warm, Wet and Cool, Wet and Warm. Both diseases were disproportionately concentrated in the Wet and Cool season (cardiovascular 46.1%; cerebrovascular 42.1%; p < 0.001). Simultaneous adjustment for all non-redundant climate variables revealed contrasting effects of rainfall characteristics on cardiovascular admissions. While increased total monthly rainfall was associated with a lower likelihood of admission (adjusted OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.61–0.85, p < 0.001), a higher frequency of rainy-days was independently associated with an increased probability of admission (adjusted OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.38–2.18, p < 0.001). No climate variable independently predicted cerebrovascular admission. Older age independently predicted both cardiovascular and cerebrovascular admissions, whereas male sex specifically predicted cerebrovascular admissions (AOR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.10–1.52, p = 0.002).

The Wet and Cool season was associated with a higher concentration of vascular admissions at Ga North District Hospital, with rainfall frequency independently predicting cardiovascular admissions. Cerebrovascular admissions, in contrast, were more strongly associated with patient-level characteristics than with the climatic variables examined. These findings support seasonally informed resource planning at district facilities in tropical West Africa and underscore the importance of climate-resilient vascular health systems.