Explainable, personalised prediction of emergency readmission and mortality following hospitalisation in patients with heart failure
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Background
Unplanned emergency readmissions remain common following hospitalisation for heart failure (HF). Residual congestion, atrial fibrillation, frailty, and other comorbidities contribute to adverse outcomes after discharge. Identifying patients at high risk of readmission or death may help target post-discharge management.
Methods
We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalised with HF in selected New South Wales hospitals who were discharged alive and not documented as receiving end-of-life care. Clinical, laboratory, medication, and text-derived variables extracted from electronic health records were used to develop predictive models and corresponding risk scores for emergency readmission and all-cause mortality within 180 days of discharge. Feature importance methods were used to identify key predictors and explain individual risk estimates. To illustrate model predictions while preserving patient privacy, we generated representative synthetic patient profiles by summarising the characteristics of groups of patients with similar predicted risk patterns and visualised the major contributors to their predicted risks using Shapley values.
Results
The study included 5,202 hospitalisations among 3,933 patients. Within 180 days of discharge, 45.2% of patients experienced at least one emergency readmission and 12.4% died. The most common causes of emergency readmission were recurrent HF, followed by atrial fibrillation, chest pain, and pneumonia. Predictive performance was moderate for emergency readmission (AUC 0.70; calibration slope 1.30) and good for mortality (AUC 0.84; calibration slope 1.01). Emergency readmission risk was primarily associated with greater prior healthcare utilisation, a higher number of active medical problems, high risk of falls, older age, and impaired kidney function. Mortality risk was most strongly associated with abnormal red blood cell distribution width, elevated blood urea, older age, and lower systolic blood pressure. A lower number of discharge medications, particularly cardiovascular therapies, was associated with a higher risk of emergency readmission and a lower risk of mortality. Representative synthetic patient profiles demonstrated heterogeneity in the factors contributing to predicted risks, illustrating the value of patient-level risk visualisation.
Conclusions
Predictive models identified clinically meaningful predictors of emergency readmission and mortality following HF hospitalisation. Patient-level visualisation of individual risk drivers may support more personalised post-discharge management.
