West Nile virus in Italy: history and evolving transmission patterns
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BACKGROUND
West Nile virus (WNV) has become an important public health concern in Europe. Italy is one of the most affected countries, yet our understanding of WNV epidemiology, genomics, and dispersal across hosts and geographic regions is incomplete.
AIM
To reveal the history of WNV in Italy by integrating epidemiological, genomic, and environmental data into descriptive and quantitative assessments of its past spatio-temporal surveillance and expansion.
METHODS
We collated vertebrate and mosquito WNV records from national surveillance and the scientific literature spanning multiple decades. Historical serological and molecular data were summarized by host and region, climatic associations with case trends were assessed using regression models, and phylodynamic and phylogeographic analyses reconstructed viral introductions and dispersal within Italy.
RESULTS
WNV circulation in Italy has changed markedly over time, with increasing human case reporting and expansion beyond historically affected northern regions. Climate-informed regression models explained recent reporting trends, supporting an environmental contribution to transmission. Phylodynamic analyses identified multiple independent introductions and sustained local transmission with increasing regional connectivity. Wavefront analyses revealed lineage-specific dispersal patterns associated with seasonal climatic gradients. Discrepancies between epidemiological records and genomic sampling highlighted uneven surveillance across regions and host species.
CONCLUSION
WNV emergence in Italy reflects repeated viral introductions, local persistence, heterogeneous surveillance, and environmentally associated dispersal dynamics. Strengthening integrated surveillance combining epidemiological, environmental, and genomic data will improve early detection, the monitoring of transmission dynamics, and public health preparedness under ongoing environmental change.
