Visible Immigration Enforcement Arrests and Mental Health Among Hispanic Adults in the United States

Objectives

To assess whether higher state-level community-based U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrest rates are associated with adverse mental health outcomes among Hispanic and non-Hispanic adults in the United States.

Design

Retrospective analysis using individual-level data from the 2023 and 2024 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) linked to monthly state-level ICE arrest records from the Deportation Data Project. Two-way fixed effects models assessed associations between mental health outcomes and ICE arrests, net of secular trends, state-specific time invariant factors, and individual covariates.

Setting/participants

The sample included 534,099 US adults aged 18 years or older residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia surveyed between September 2023 and December 2024. Analyses exploited within-state month-to-month variation in enforcement intensity with state and year-month fixed effects.

Outcome measures

Number of poor mental health days in the past 30 days; any poor mental health days (binary); mental health status (3-level categorical); frequent mental distress (≥14 poor mental health days); and a composite indicator combining depressive disorder diagnosis with frequent mental distress.

Results

Among 534,099 respondents (approximately 10% Hispanic), higher ICE arrest rates were significantly associated with worse mental health among Hispanic adults, including 0.19 additional poor mental health days per month ( p < 0.05), a 2.2% higher likelihood of reporting any poor mental health days ( p < 0.01), and a 2.4% increase in composite mental health problems ( p < 0.01). Associations were concentrated among Hispanic women and those with a high school diploma or less. Among non-Hispanic adults, estimates were small and precisely centered around zero across outcomes. Similar findings obtained in difference-in-differences event study models, models including lagged exposures, and models with leave-one-out state exclusions.

Conclusion

Higher community-based immigration enforcement was associated with worse mental health outcomes among Hispanic adults but not among non-Hispanic adults. Contemporary enforcement strategies may have broader psychological spillover effects within Hispanic communities, and mental health may be an underrecognized social cost of interior immigration enforcement.

Strengths and Limitations of this Study

• The study links individual-level data from a large, nationally representative health survey to monthly state-level ICE arrest records, using each respondent’s month of interview to match exposure to contemporaneous enforcement activity.

• Community-based (non-prison) arrests are separated from custodial transfers, isolating the more visible form of enforcement that characterizes recent ICE activity.

• The design leverages within-state month-to-month variation in enforcement intensity with state and year-month fixed effects. Estimates are robust to alternative specifications, including a difference-in-differences event study approach, inclusion of lagged enforcement measures, and the exclusion of individual states one at a time.

• The survey does not record immigration status, may underrepresent undocumented immigrants, and may capture reduced participation among those most exposed to enforcement, which would bias estimates toward the null; enforcement is also measured at the state-month level rather than at finer geographic or temporal resolution, limiting analysis by legal status and local enforcement encounters.