Testing the waters of macrophyte biodiversity with multiscale spatial analysis of public lake monitoring data

Freshwater monitoring programmes like the European Union’s Water Framework Directive (WFD) provide a wealth of data on European lake status, including water quality and macrophytes (aquatic plants) as critical habitat features that support health of humans and wildlife. Easier WFD data access can enable external management and research to better safeguard human and natural freshwater use. We demonstrate a replicable workflow to easily download and process multi-year (2007–2024) observations of lake macrophytes (425 sites) and complementary water quality variables (202 sites) from Swedish WFD data. Then, we illustrate the value of improved data access to address ecological questions that drive conservation, investigating how spatial scales influence macrophyte richness and associated water quality relationships using a spatial random intercept model. Decomposing the spatial intercept links small scales (<10 km) to site-level gradients and large scales (>100 km) to biogeographical drivers. Stochastic and environmentally-structured processes coexisted at intermediate scales (10–100 km). Adding water quality rarely improved overall predictive performance of macrophyte diversity models but consistently influences the role of different spatial scales. Water quality variables showed consistent spatially structured variation at intermediate scales and unique spatial patterns in tandem, overlapping with large-scale biogeographical influences. Altogether, we show context-dependencies for spatial model interpretation and provide guidance in accounting for spatial confounding to improve inferential and predictive performance. Our workflow and results show a clear way forward for accessing high-quality macrophyte and water quality data sets and their utility for addressing ecological questions that guide macrophyte protection under the WFD.