Ten-years absolute risk estimates of death and kidney failure in adults with chronic kidney disease: Analysis of electronic health records of 142,770 patients of the Social Security system of Peru

Objective: To determine the absolute risk of starting dialysis versus mortality among adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) treated at EsSalud from 2013 to 2022, utilizing data from the Renal Health Surveillance system (VISARE). Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzed clinical records from the VISARE system (EsSalud). We estimated rates of dialysis initiation and death using Fine & Gray competitive risk models. Additionally, we calculated Restricted Mean Survival Time (RMST), adjusting for age, sex, clinical stage, and geographic region. Results: Among 142,770 adults with confirmed CKD and available glomerular filtration rate data, only 15.2% had albumin-to-creatinine ratio measurements, allowing KDIGO staging of 40,404 patients (28.3%). Mortality without having previously started dialysis exceeded the probability of starting renal replacement therapy (RRT) from G1, becoming more marked in G3 of chronic kidney disease (CKD); the possibility of dialysis is only greater, as expected, in G5. This outcome was most prevalent in regions with limited healthcare coverage. The combination of diabetes, hypertension, and age over 55 (the triad) was associated with reduced restricted mean survival time at both 5- and 10-year horizons across all enrollment cohorts. While Lima saw the highest rates of renal replacement therapy initiation, the Andean and Amazonian regions reported the lowest indicators. Conclusions Death without prior dialysis was the dominant outcome from G1 to G3 in this Peruvian cohort with national insurance, with direct implications for prognostic counseling, recalibration of renal failure risk equations, and equitable expansion of nephrology services in underserved regions. Keywords: Renal Insufficiency, Chronic; Competitive Risk; Diabetes Mellitus; Hypertension; Mortality; Mass Screening.